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31st March 2014

Singapore Real Estate

Property agents feeling the pinch as market cools

Source: Straits Times

It might be a property buyer's market now that prices in the fourth quarter last year have finally dipped after several years but it is about as grim as it gets for property agents. Buying interest is down to levels not seen since the months following the 2008 global market crash although prices have held up better this time around.

Views, Reviews & Forum

Building affordable homes for S'poreans

Source: Straits Times

At the turn of the last decade, there were fears that the Housing Board flat was becoming out of reach for many families. Young couples bemoaned the fierce competition to buy subsidised Build-To-Order (BTO) flats from the HDB, while soaring prices meant that buying a resale flat was a costly proposition.

The rise of the public flat as an asset

Source: Straits Times

Public housing in some countries often takes the form of rental homes for the less well-off, such as Britain's council estates or "the projects" in the United States. Although owning such property is an option, it is not seen as the default there - unlike in Singapore.

Reits can help SMEs own part of property

Source: Straits Times

Ms chia Yan Min's article last Tuesday ("Coping with high industrial rents") mentioned that "many blamed recent steep rental hikes on real estate investment trusts (Reits)". She also stated that Reits own "just 16 per cent" of industrial space, "hardly enough to be a price-setter".

Stop rent hikes from killing small firms

Source: Straits Times

I sympathise with Mr Fredrik Cheng's situation and that of other small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which are fighting a tough battle ("Coping with high industrial rents"; last Tuesday). Although SMEs employ 70 per cent of our workforce, they have not been protected in their own backyard against soaring rentals, a tight labour market and higher wage costs.

No room for negotiation

Source: Straits Times 

I totally agree with Mr Tan Kin Lian, who suggested keeping rents stable to support small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Singapore ("Keep rental rates stable"; March 14). As an SME owner, I run a logistics business with a warehouse in Jalan Buroh Warehouse Complex, whose landlord is Jurong Port.

Agents 'giving up or branching out' as tough times bite

Source: Straits Times

Mr David Cheong has seen all sides of the local residential property market - as a property agent, and more recently as a trainer of property agents. Times are tough now, he said, observing that many would-be agents fall by the wayside when they realise how difficult the market has become.

Love of property runs in his blood

Source: Straits Times

As the son of Eric Tan, the so-called "Geylang king", Hatten Group managing director Colin Tan has the love of property coursing through his veins. His father achieved fame after buying more than 30 properties and plots in the Geylang area between 1990 and 1995 for redevelopment. Those projects included the 49-unit Torieview Mansions and the 14-unit Goodview Mansions.

Global Economy & Global Real Estate

Japan may see another property price boom

'Asset inflation' in stock prices has returned, property prices may follow suit

Source: Business Times / World

A 74 billion yen (S$906.1 million) property deal in one of Tokyo's prime districts has sparked speculation that a property price boom may be brewing again in major Japanese cities after some 25 years of continuing price declines following the collapse of Japan's bubble economy after 1990.

While attention continues to be focused on whether the Bank of Japan can succeed in turning 15 years of declining prices into a 2 per cent annual increase in consumer prices, "asset inflation" in stock prices has roared back and property prices may be about to follow suit.

The plan by Osaka-based house builder Sekisui House to buy the Kokusai Akasaka Building, reported at the weekend by Reuters quoting "people briefed on they deal", is being taken by some as a signal that a Japanese real estate boom could indeed be in the offing.

"A rise in asset prices is the desired outcome of the super quanto easing imposed on the Bank of Japan by the (Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Finance Minister Taro Aso) regime," former Goldman Sachs vice-president (Asia) Kenneth Courtis told The Business Times yesterday. "With Japanese banks stuffed with excess reserves, and low loan to deposit ratios, there is an ocean of ultra cheap liquidity now available for investors," Mr Courtis noted.

-By Anthony Rowley in Tokyo

Cement Shen’ Detained Spurs Scavenging as China Developer Fails

Source: Bloomberg / Luxury

Amid the cluster of half-built brick townhouses surrounded by budding peach groves on the outskirts of Fenghua city, south of Shanghai, workers last week could be seen taking down metal scaffolding and hauling away steel plates.

They had heard the news about “Cement Shen,” the nickname of the developer whose Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. became insolvent this month with 3.5 billion yuan($563 million) in debt, according to an official in the eastern Chinese city of Fenghua, 120 miles (190 kilometers) from Shanghai. Authorities detained founder Shen Caixing and his son for illegal fundraising, Xu Mengting, director of the government information office, said in a March 21 interview.

“The developer owed us hundreds of thousands of yuan” for scaffolding and steel, said workers Xie and Wang, who would only give their surnames as they collected dozens of long metal plates. “We are taking these materials back for now, because there’s no work here.”

The insolvency may portend difficult times ahead for small developers. China has almost 90,000 of them nationwide, National Bureau of Statistics data show. As new-home price growth slows in China and cash-flow conditions tighten, more local builders like Xingrun will face defaults, Fitch Ratings Ltd. Hong Kong-based analyst Andy Chang wrote in a March 19 report.

China’s smaller cities have experienced a building boom. About 67 percent of housing under construction in China last year was in less-affluent cities like Fenghua, according to a Nomura Holdings Inc. report.

Tudor Turrets

With Chinese characters meaning Peach Blossom Palace, the development of two-story homes, some with Tudor-style turrets, was to be sold to the wealthy of Fenghua and the nearby port city of Ningbo. The elder Shen founded Xingrun, the biggest local developer, 14 years ago and was chairman of the local Real Estate Association, according to the city government website.

Wu Xijuan, a 50-year-old property agent at Tengfei real estate agency in Fenghua, said Shen was a celebrity and seemed to be “a pretty decent guy.”

“Everybody called him ‘Cement Shen’ because he started out with a renovation and cement business,” said Wu, adding that Shen’s stature at an estimated 1.6 meters tall (5 feet 2 inches) made him “a very low-profile guy” that “you probably would think is just some farmer and wouldn’t know is rich.”

Pawn Shops

Fenghua, population 500,000, is the birthplace of former Chinese nationalist leader General Chiang Kai-shek, and is home to textile, farming, fishing, and tourism industries, as well as a factory for mobile-phone maker Ningbo Bird Co. (600130) The city has a number of pawn shops and microcredit agencies offering high-interest loans, a practice known as shadow banking, which is frequently used to fund property development after China’s banks were restricted from lending into the sector.

The annual per capita disposable income of Fenghua’s urban residents rose almost 9 percent in 2013 to 39,414 yuan, according to city government data.

By that measure, it would take 145 years for an average Fenghua resident to afford the cheapest Peach Blossom Palace home. Prices ranged from 5.7 million yuan for 285 square meters (3,077 square feet) to 25 million yuan for 500 square meters, according to listings on SouFun Holdings Ltd. (SFUN), China’s biggest real estate website.

Along the road leading into Peach Blossom Palace, which the developer had named Taoyuan Villas in English, are advertisements for the homes. One shows a woman in a Marie-Antoinette-style, 18th-century French wig beside a horse. Signs are printed in poor English: “Dominating the World, Lead to the Revolution on Pure Villa in Fenghua” and “A Mansion to Cash the Dream on Arcadia That You Expect to All Life.”

Exposed Walls

Xingrun had probably been insolvent since as early as 2010, while the shadow banking loans it took had involved many government civil servants, Oriental Outlook, a magazine published by the official Xinhua News Agency, reported today, citing an unidentified head of a local bank and homebuyers in Fenghua.

Gates at the site were half-open, leading to about 50 to 60 half-finished structures with exposed brick walls, cement foundations, and square holes where the windows should be.

A report in the 21st Century Business Herald identified the founder’s son as Shen Mingchong and said the elder Shen was born in 1953. The name and date couldn’t be independently confirmed.

Neither Shen nor his son could be reached at Xingrun’s listed phone numbers, nor could they be found at the company’s main office, which was no longer there. Another Xingrun office and showroom for the Peach Blossom Palace was closed. China doesn’t have telephone listings for individuals.

‘Big Brother’

Xingrun owes 2.4 billion yuan to banks including China Construction Bank Corp. and Agricultural Bank of China Ltd., 700 million yuan to private lenders and the rest to construction companies, said Xu, the city official.

“There are several reasons for Xingrun’s insolvency. The main reason is that the company wasn’t run well,” said Xu. “Fluctuation of land prices” also played a role.

To build the development, Xingrun acquired three plots measuring 140,083 square meters in January 2010 for 660 million yuan, according to Fenghua’s land bureau. In December, the government auctioned three plots totaling 163,258 square meters in the same area for 576 million yuan to Shimao Property Holdings Ltd. (813), suggesting land values slumped around 30 percent in three years.

“Xingrun was the big brother in town. It was one of the very first companies in the property business, with no previous experience or professional sales teams,” said Zhong Yongjin, a Ningbo-based researcher at Centaline Property Agency Ltd., China’s biggest real estate brokerage. “But these local developers usually don’t have risk controls, and they operate in ways regardless of market changes.”

Unpaid Bill

Ningbo’s home-price growth slowed for a second month in February, rising 6.1 percent compared with 7.1 percent in January, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

The Peach Blossom Palace showroom is in a luxury residential high-rise complex built by Xingrun in downtown Fenghua in the early 2000s. Yangguang Mingdu, which translates as Sunshine Tea City, is one of the highest-end housing projects in town, according to Centaline.

Taped to the unlocked glass door of the empty, dusty showroom was an unpaid February utility bill for 224 yuan. A model of the Peach Blossom Palace development sat in the center, with sales information on the surrounding walls.

Local Interests

A man called He, who wouldn’t give his full name, had taken up residency, living with a colleague in two of the former office rooms. Suitcases and a bed could be seen, along with cups of instant noodles and tea.

“Living conditions here are not good, but we want an update about the incident,” said He, who said Xingrun owed his construction advisory and planning company several million yuan. “There are two sides pulling against each other in the debate over what to do because there are too many local interests involved. Some want the government to step in and bail Xingrun out, while others prefer some private companies to take over Xingrun’s assets.”

He called Peach Blossom Palace a “high-quality project” and said he expected the situation to be resolved to his satisfaction, “but we just don’t know how long it will take.”

Big Developers

While half of the 10 biggest developers by sales in Ningbo, which has jurisdiction over Fenghua, are local, the remaining projects have been built by China’s largest listed firms, including China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd. (688) and Shimao, based in Hong Kong, and Shenzhen-based China Vanke Co. (000002), according to Centaline.

While large developers are able to borrow at cheaper interest rates from banks, unlisted small Chinese developers have more difficulty getting credit amid the country’s four-year efforts to tighten the property market, according to a March 18 Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services report.

“Local developers suffer,” said Centaline’s Zhong. “They usually spend a lot of time and effort on government relations. But when big developers enter the city, the government will quickly turn to them, because they bring along more stable tax revenues.”

-By Bloomberg News

U.K. Home Prices Extend Best Run Since 2007 as Increases Spread

Source: Bloomberg / Luxury

U.K. house prices increased for a 14th consecutive month in March, the longest run of gains in almost seven years, as momentum spread across the country.

Values in England and Wales rose 0.6 percent from February, with the southwest and East Anglia registering the largest increases, property researcher Hometrack Ltd. said in a report published today. Prices in London climbed 0.7 percent, while 50 percent of postcode districts reported gains.

Record-low borrowing costs and a government-incentive plan have spurred concern that the U.K. housing market risks overheating. Bank of England financial stability officials said last week there’s increasing momentum in the market and pledged to take more action if needed.

“Half of the country registered a price increase in March for a second month in a row,” said Richard Donnell, director of research at Hometrack. “The real driver of higher house prices is record-low mortgage rates and strong demand from first-time buyers and investors who have no property to sell.”

Yorkshire and Humberside and the northwest region registered the smallest gains, with values increasing 0.2 percent in March. Prices in the southwest and East Anglia increased 0.8 percent.

Nationally, prices rose 5.7 percent in March from a year earlier and the annual rate of growth was positive across all regions for the first time since September 2007, Hometrack said. The proportion of sellers achieving their asking price was 96.2 percent in March, the highest since 2004. In London, the proportion was 99.3 percent.

BOE officials adopted measures to restrain housing by ending mortgage incentives under its Funding for Lending Scheme in November. While the Financial Policy Committee said this month it will “remain vigilant,” it also noted that a number of indicators remained below their long-run average levels.

-By Emma Charlton